Back to the future – Reflections and Projections

One of the most valuable parts of learning is discovering new ideas and different ways of thinking. While some of this comes from formal teaching, we all have access to a vast library of knowledge that can help us learn some of these skills for ourselves. We just need to ask the right questions and look in the right place. Oh, and you might find it helpful to have pen and paper.

Simply reflect on a specific experience and critically examine it by asking yourself questions such as, what did I learn from this? What aspects were unclear or confusing? What approaches were effective, and which ones fell short? Reflection not only deepens understanding but will help identify ways in which you can improve.

The value of reflection is well understood and encouraged within education, and although students may not initially see its importance they will be asked to produce reflective statements or keep a journal in at attempt to get them to appreciate its worth. From a cognitive perspective your brain isn’t just opening a file, its actually reconstructing (ironically like an LLM) and rewiring the information. The process will strengthen the synaptic path, develop new associations, which in turn helps integrate different types of information into a “big picture.” Before finally being resaved as a stronger, more complex version of the original idea or thought.

But enough of what it is, let me see if I can put it into practice by reflecting on 2025 and coming up with a few ideas for 2026.

Reflections on 2025
This time last year I set out some predictions as to what might happen in learning from 2025 onwards with the caveat that making predictions is a “mugs game.” Looking back, there was nothing particularly radical in what I suggested. In that sense, if I was being critical, it may be that the ideas themselves may not have helped that much. Even so, I hope that by narrowing the field of possibilities it made the future seem a little less confusing.

The 2025 predictions:

1. Learning will not change but learners will. A reference to how learners will develop different behaviours as a result of AI. This year research from MIT confirmed what many had suspected that using AI has an impact on brain activity, causing what they called “cognitive debt” e.g. saving effort now, but weakening cognitive abilities over time. This will remain a challenge in 2026 and beyond requiring educators to get ahead of the technology rather than simply acknowledging its existence and use.

2. AI (GenAI) will continue to dominate. An easy one perhaps, of course AI was going to play a hugely important part in learning. But there was specific reference to it becoming the “go to” tool for students and the emergence of teaching chatbots.  A survey by Hepi and Kortext early in 2025 found that the proportion of students now using AI has jumped from 66% last year to 92% this year. Which seems conclusive, AI has become an ever-present aspect of student life and one that cannot be ignored. Teacher bots have also advanced significantly, with research showing they now deliver consistently high‑quality learning experiences. Expect these trends to continue as well as the big tech companies developing AI integrated solutions for learners and educators e.g. Gemini for Education, Copilot for Education, ChatGPT Edu, Pearson +.

3. Watch out for sector disruption, the result of, a reduced need for textbooks, a different approach to assessment and data becoming even more important. In 2025 Chegg, the US publisher reported first-quarter 2025 revenues down 30%! naming Googles GenAI intelligent summaries, as significantly contributing to the sharp decrease in its traffic. And they are not the only ones impacted, Pearson et al are changing their plans, hoping that AI‑enhanced textbooks are the solution to declining sales, personally I’m not convinced.

By late 2025, large companies were finding access to quality data was stopping them getting value from AI. In fact,  Gartner found that 30% of GenAI projects fail because of poor data. As for assessment, in a somewhat backward and reactive step some have reverted to the use of more traditional assessment methods. These include oral exams, handwritten exams and portfolios to combat plagiarism. The smarter more proactive solution would be to build AI into the assessment process, with appropriate guardrails for novice leaners. Some have begun to make changes and will continue to do so into next year but its patchy.

4. Regulation will be in conflict with innovation. This year governments have been working hard to balance innovation with responsible oversight. In the UK and EU, policymakers recognise AI’s potential but are introducing strict rules creating a tension for schools and colleges that want to innovate. In contrast, the US are taking a more flexible approach, offering federal guidance rather than strict regulation. Expect this tension to continue well into 2026, and there’s no simple resolution. While slowing down may feel defeatist, the answer isn’t to rush implementation it’s to accelerate the validation process itself. Meet weekly to assess new tools, prioritise solutions based on the biggest challenges, implement, then move on to the next.

Reflections and projections for 2026 – The level of investment in AI has driven what feels like an arms race in technological development. This has meant keeping up to date with new AI solutions has become increasingly difficult, as has understanding why the latest tool is better than the one, you’re currently using. Technology is advancing faster than individuals or institutions can sensibly integrate and manage within their existing practices. There is no single pathway forward, no consensus on best practice, and little time to evaluate what actually works before the next wave of tools arrive. This mismatch creates risks. Without proper integration, barriers may emerge, whether through poorly designed policies that restrict innovation or the development of tools that undermine rather than support learning. Personalisation and more authentic methods of assessment will remain the North Star for many in navigating this disruptive environment. Keep them in mind, but remember to look down every now and again, you dont want to trip up.

Personally, I’m excited about 2026. AI is opening doors we couldn’t have imagined even a few years ago, and the potential to do good things, to truly make a difference, feels within reach. However, the pace of development is uneven and the world remains unpredictable. More realistically, we are likely to see parts of the education sector make genuine breakthroughs, while others hold back and wait, the result of indecision, or taking a more cautious approach. There is of course no way of knowing which one will succeed in the long run.

Whatever the reason, 2026 looks set to intensify the “Jagged frontier”.

Perhaps Winston Churchill should close out 2025.

Merry Xmas and a Happy New year everyone – put your running shoes on, but make sure the race is worth running and the prize worth having!

The independent learner – Metacognition

Metacognition is not a great word but it’s an important one when it comes to learning, especially if you are studying at higher academic levels or on your own. Cognition refers to the range of mental processes that help you acquire knowledge and understanding or more simply, learn. These processes include the storage, manipulation, and retrieval of information. Meta on the other hand means higher than or overarching, put the two together and we are talking about something that sits above learning, connecting it by way of thought. For this reason, it’s often described as thinking about thinking or in this context thinking about how you learn.

Smarter not harder

When you have a lot to learn in terms of subject matter it may feel like a distraction to spend any time learning something other than what you must know, let alone reflecting on it, but this fits under the heading of working smarter not harder, if you can find more effective ways of learning that must be helpful.
As mentioned earlier cognition is about mental processes, storage and retrieval relate to memory, manipulation, to the shifting of attention, changing perception etc. But the meta aspect creates distance, allowing us to become aware of what we are doing, standing back and observing how for example perception has changed, this reflection is a high-level skill that many believe is unique to humans. One final aspect is that we can take control of how we learn, planning tasks, changing strategies, monitoring those that work and evaluating the whole process.

Keeping it simple

Its very easy to overcomplicate metacognition, in some ways its little more than asking a few simple questions, thinking about how you are learning, what works and what doesn’t.  Here are some examples as to how you might do this.

  • Talk to yourself, ask questions at each stage, does this make sense, I have read it several times maybe I should try writing it down.
  • Ask, have I set myself sensible goals?
  • Maybe it’s time to try something different, for example mind mapping, but remember to reflect on how effective it was or perhaps was not.
  • Do I need help from anyone, this could be a fellow student or try YouTube which is a great way to find a different explanation in a different format?

Clearly these skills are helpful for all students but they are especially valuable when studying on your own perhaps on a distance learning programme or engaged in large periods of self-study.

Benefits

There are many reasons for investing some time in this area.

  • Growing self-confidence – by finding out more about how you learn you will discover both your strengths and weaknesses. Confidence isn’t about being good at everything but understanding your limitations.  
  • Improves performance – research has shown that students who actively engage in metacognition do better in exams.
  • Gives control – you are no longer reliant on the way something is taught; you have the ability to teach yourself. Being an autonomous learner is also hugely motivational.
  • The skills are transferable – this knowledge will not only help with your current subjects but all that follow, not to mention what you will need to learn in the workplace.  

It will take some time initially but, in a way, metacognition is part of learning, it’s an essential component and as such you will end up knowing more about yourself at some point, even if you don’t want to, so why not do it sooner rather than later.

And just for fun – Sheldon knows everything about himself – even when he is wrong

Reflections on Understanding ……Brexit

great briitain leaves european union metaphorI have to admit in the last few months I have spent a fair bit of time looking into the facts behind the EU and checking on some of the statements made by both the remain and leave sides, attempting to discover truths or otherwise so that I could make a more informed decision. It proved difficult; much was opinion dressed up as fact by using numbers open to interpretation. Another technique used on the face of it to offer clarity, but in reality did just the opposite, was to state the “facts” forcefully, with conviction and repeat them often, giving the impression that what was being said was not only true but believed to be true.

But this blog is not really about Brexit, well kind of, I couldn’t let the most important decision made in this country for over 40 years go without some mention.

Following the announcement of the results on Friday the 24th of June I found myself going through what Elizabeth Kubler-Ross described as the five stages of grief. Denial, no that can’t be true. Anger, WHO was it that voted like that, they must be MAD or words to that effect. Bargaining, let me break down the statistics and find out who voted and what group they came from, old/young, North/South, maybe they could be persuaded to change their minds, or better still perhaps we will have a second referendum. Depression, we are all doomed, and finally Acceptance, it is what it is, we now need to make the most of it.

Reflection

What I have described above is not simply the ramblings of a disgruntled and disenfranchised supporter of the in campaign but goes some way towards illustrating the process of reflection, one of the most important components of learning and a key technique in developing a deeper understanding.  It was David A Kolb who in 1984 put forward the argument that we learn from reflecting on our experiences.

KolbModelStep one in Kolb’s learning cycle is to have the experience. Step two, reflect, think back on what we have experienced. Step three, conceptualise, generate a hypothesis about the meaning of the experience, what is it we have learned, and step four, test that the hypothesis is supported by the experience, does it confirm that what we have learned is correct.

By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest. Confucius

Reflection – purposeful thought

Getting students to do this consciously is however difficult, in fairness I didn’t reflect consciously myself, it was part of a process in trying to understand why I was feeling the way I did. I felt angry but on one level didn’t know why, so I had to reflect on what had happened to find out.

The point being simply asking a student to complete say a reflection log, no matter how much you state the value of keeping one, will probably result in little more than blank pages. You need to have a reason to reflect, this might be to identify the cause of an emotion as was the case for me or to answer a question, which may be as simple as, “thinking back on the last essay you submitted, what have you learned?” it just needs to have a purpose. Of course the reflection log may still remain blank but that is more to do with motivation than the power of the exercise.

One simple technique to help with reflection is to think back on what has happened, identify the impact that it will have today on the present and what the implications will be for the future.

Lessons learned

So having passed through the stages of grief, rather too quickly I am sure some will say and reflected on the experience, what have I learned? Well, some has been confirmation of what I already knew. Firstly, that Politicians will make statements that they may or not believe at the time but will back away from after the event. This can be achieved whilst still retaining an internal level of integrity by pointing out that they never used those exact words, standing in front of a bus that has them blazoned across it, is not the same. Did anyone really believe that £350m would be spent on the health service or that Europe would not trade with us at all, after Brexit. Secondly that I like democracy as long as it comes up with the answer I want, but not when it doesn’t. Thirdly, the electorate does not make decisions using in-depth analysis and reflection but by deep held beliefs built up over time, often reinforced by the people closest to them. And lastly that the status quo is not sustainable and that happiness is a comparative process thus making change inevitable and with change comes risk.

Will it be for the better, only time will tell, we will have to wait for the historians to reflect on what the UK looked like in 2016 and whether it was better in 2026, as you can see reflection has many uses!

Let me leave you with my favourite quote of the campaign, not from one of the leading politicians involved, but Abraham Lincoln.

 “Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.”